Why it’s Groundhog Day for Scotland’s newbuild sector

Starts and completion statistics continue to fall despite country facing a housing emergency, writes David J Alexander.

The latest statistics on newbuild starts and completions have a distinctly ‘Groundhog Day’ feel about them. The figures, which are produced every three months, show housing construction numbers continue to fall despite the fact that we are 30 months into a national housing emergency. The total number of all-sector newbuild starts was down by 2 per cent, falling 272 from 15,815 to 15,543 which is the lowest 12-month figure since 2013. All-sector newbuild completions dropped by 11 per cent, falling 2,123 from 19,180 to 17,057 – the lowest figure since 2015.

Private sector newbuild starts and completions are down by 8 per cent and 7 per cent, recording the lowest figures since 2013 and 2018 respectively. Then you look at the social housing statistics and are amazed to see that starts have risen by 26.0 per cent, increasing 754 from 2,947 to 3,701 but with the proviso that this is only because the previous years’ number was the lowest on record! The number of social housing newbuild completions fell by 1,136 (25 per cent), down from 4,619 to 3,483.

With social housing waiting lists at record levels, the number of individuals and families living in temporary accommodation at an all-time high, and a rising population it is clear that we are many years away from resolving this housing emergency. The concern is that nobody appears to have even begun to try to fix this problem.

Of further concern is that there is a growing disparity in the volume of newbuilds by area, with some parts of Scotland barely building and others experiencing a boom. Edinburgh has the highest number of all-sector newbuild completions at 2,458, which is 14.4 per cent of the Scottish total. Glasgow city, however, only had 906 newbuild completions which is just 5.3 per cent of the total yet just 20 years ago the city had the highest volume in Scotland.

The combined newbuild completions for Edinburgh, West Lothian, East Lothian, Midlothian, and Fife – which all feed into the capital’s economy – reached 6,740 in the latest financial year, which is 39.5 per cent of the total.

Whilst there is little doubt that the capital is undergoing something of a boom it cannot be good for an economy to have such a focus on one part of the country and risks creating a two-tier housing market. The capital and its surrounds will benefit while other areas are left with low growth.

Nobody would argue that houses will always be built where there is greatest demand, but it is not healthy for whole parts of Scotland to have such limited activity at the same time that the capital and its surrounding areas have so much.

These figures must act as a wake-up call to deliver more homes across all tenures and in all parts of Scotland if we are to begin to address the housing emergency. There needs to be greater urgency in our decision-makers to act immediately if the current shortages are to be addressed. Proper planning, development and investment must be encouraged, and the views and voices of builders, investors, landlords, agents, governments, trade bodies, and official housing organisations must be listened to if we are to develop a quick, effective, and functioning solution to this rapidly growing problem. Scotland desperately needs more homes, and it needs them now.