Why Scotland’s housing crisis was completely foreseeable

Action to address shortages in all tenures needs to occur immediately if this situation is not to go on for another 20 years, writes ​​David J Alexander.

When people talk about Scotland’s housing emergency there is always an element of surprise that it has occurred. People seem to think that this has come out of nowhere, that nobody could have seen it coming, and are shocked that this has happened. The truth is that this was completely foreseeable and is the result of inaction over many years in ensuring that strong housebuilding growth in all tenures was occurring.

More worryingly what we now have is a slowing housebuilding programme which is not keeping up with current demand never mind addressing the existing undersupply in the system. Between March 2007 until March 2024 the Scottish population increased by 402,700 while the total number of occupied dwellings rose by 286,142. Of this housing total there was an increase of 151,131 in the number of owner-occupied dwellings; a 107,242 rise in the private rented sector; and a decline of 20,267 in the social housing sector.

Over the last two decades we have also seen a major change in the way in which people live. There are now far more one and two-person households, with the result that more homes are required to house people. There are not nearly as many large families in Scotland, so the volume of properties required should have risen at a much greater rate simply to keep up with demand. Unfortunately, this has not happened.

In 2007 the Scottish government reported that housing completions were over 25,000 a year and it was anticipated that this trend would continue perhaps even rising to 27,000. In fact, all-sector newbuild completions have never achieved that level since and have fallen substantially, reaching 17,268 in the 2025-26 financial year with just 3,774 in social housing.

There has been far too little social housing, coupled with a growing population, and too few homes being delivered to meet current and future demand. Just 30 years ago there were 668,000 properties in the social housing sector yet now this is over 50 per cent lower at 325,477 at a time when there are record waiting lists, the highest ever number of families living in temporary accommodation, and little sign that population growth is slowing.

But it is not all bad news. By 2024 Scotland had its highest number ever of owner-occupiers at 1,645,318, which is almost 100,000 higher than five years before. The growth in the size of the private rented sector (PRS) has been crucial in meeting demand in the rental market, with the number of homes increasing by 43.4 per cent in just under 20 years. Without landlords and property investors the current housing emergency would have occurred earlier and been substantially worse.

These figures show that Scotland’s housing emergency has been coming for a long time and that action to address housing shortages in all tenures needs to occur immediately if this situation is not to go on for another 20 years. There needs to be a fully funded, properly coordinated, and multi-faceted approach to build more social housing, encourage greater investment in the private rented sector, and ensure that housebuilders can quickly and effectively increase their capacity. It would be a disgrace if an examination of this data in five years’ time showed no progress in meeting housing needs in Scotland.